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Trade War Thawing? Market Commentary – October 14, 2019
A verbal agreement. Friday, October 11, the U.S. announced that it had reached a verbal agreement with China, concluding two days of face-to-face talks and rampant speculation of a deal in financial markets. China agreed to purchase more agricultural products from the U.S., and the U.S. dropped plans for higher tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods, which were scheduled to take effect Oct.15. Stocks are down this morning, though, amid reports that China wants more discussions with the U.S. before signing the deal.
Slumping Chinese imports. We believe progress in the U.S.-China trade dispute is becoming more crucial to jumpstarting global demand, as China data showed this morning. China’s imports (in U.S. dollars) dropped 8.5% year over year in September, the fifth straight decline, while China’s exports fell 3.2%. Slumping Chinese imports adds to evidence that the second-largest world economy has weakened over the past year, while pockets of the U.S. economy continue to deteriorate. We think signs of slowing growth could motivate both sides to continue working together.
Earnings preview. Corporate America is unlikely to deliver much if any, earnings growth in the third quarter. However, we think better days lie ahead. We expect progress on trade to keep U.S. economic growth at or above the trend for the current economic expansion. The U.S.-China trade conflict is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, but we believe any small steps forward could increase business confidence and spark capital investment, lifting corporate profits. Flat earnings are hardly exciting, but we think prospects for better growth in 2020 will support stocks at current valuations.
Stocks rally to end the week. Stocks rallied on trade optimism late last week, erasing the S&P 500 Index’s 2% loss through Tuesday. Fixed income markets dropped across the board as global interest rates moved sharply higher. Review all the major indexes in the latest Weekly Market Performance.
The week ahead. This week’s economic calendar in the United States includes retail sales and Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on October 16, followed by industrial production on October 17 and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index on October 18. Internationally, we’ll get industrial production and Consumer Price Index data out of the Eurozone. A swath of China data is slated to be released as well, including third-quarter gross domestic product, inflation, and industrial production.
 My firm specializes in working with people that experience what we call “Sudden Income.” Typically the income came from one of these events: 1) Accessing and Managing Retirement Assets I believe the unique nature of these events requires specialized professional experience, empathy, and communication to deal with both the financial changes and the life changes that inevitably come with them. My clients value my ability to simplify complex strategies into an actionable plan. They also appreciate that I am open, non-judging and easy to talk to about their dreams and fears. Each client defines financial success differently and my goal is to guide them from where they are now to where they want to be. As my client’s advisor, my goal is to provide them with a lifetime income stream, improving returns, protecting their funds and managing taxes. |
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KEVIN GARRETT, AWMA, CFS
Integrated Financial Group
200 Ashford Center North, Ste. 400 | Atlanta, GA 30338
Phone | 770.353.6311
Email | kgarrett@intfingroup.com
Website | kevingarrettifg.com
Anatomy of a Fractional CFO Engagement
In the spring of 2018, Rebecca Holderread connected Jim Weber, Managing Partner of ITB Partners, to the CEO for a 30-year-old Atlanta area-based not-for-profit. Rebecca is a member of ITB Partners and a fractional CFO. As she had taken a full-time CFO assignment with one of her clients, she was not able to pursue this engagement herself.
When Jim was introduced to the CEO the extent of his understanding was that this not-for-profit needed a new CFO. After a few email exchanges, Jim and the prospective client scheduled a face-to-face meeting, late in the day at the prospect’s offices. The point was to conduct the meeting without alerting the incumbent Director of Finance. Jim said that the meeting consisted of the CEO and two of her board members. The first part of their meeting was an opportunity for Jim to understand the prospective client’s situation.
The prospect is a non-profit organization [501(c)(3)] established in 1988 by the CEO. This company became Georgia’s first licensed therapeutic foster care agency. In addition to placement and care for foster children, the client provides host home care for adults with developmental and physical disabilities, provides behavioral and life skills coaching for foster youth and adults and through a dedicated program, provides support, guidance, and assistance needed by teen mothers & fathers to succeed as adults and parents.
The CEO told Jim that the current Director of Finance refused to provide financial information in a format that enabled the leadership to effectively manage their business. She went on to say that he had failed to provide analysis to facilitate thoughtful decisions. Additionally, whereas the CEO wanted to install a budgeting process, the incumbent had no interest in accommodating her directive. Furthermore, this gentleman had become belligerent and insubordinate toward leadership. The situation had become intolerable, so a change had to be made
Not surprisingly, there were budgeting constraints on the compensation available for a replacement. Based on his understanding of the situation, Jim pitched them on engaging a fractional CFO. He explained the concept to the prospect, ensuring them that they could achieve their objectives without significantly impacting the P&L. The CEO liked that idea and agreed to interview several highly capable fractional CFOs affiliated with ITB Partners. I was the first on the list and met with the CEO. We connected so well that leadership decided not to talk to anyone else. I was hired for the engagement and their Director of Finance was terminated.
CFO Services Engagement:
When I started the engagement, I understood that the client was looking for better team collaboration and alignment with the fractional CFO. The CEO and the new Board of Directors (BOD) expected me to lead the financial position, to provide more timely and insightful financial statements and analytics, budgeting/forecasting, cash flow management, and strategic planning. What I soon learned that the timing of taking on this assignment and the termination of the Director of Finance was problematic. It was tax and reporting season, so I had to scramble.
Focus Areas and Results to Date:
- Fully conformed financial statements to GAAP
- Transitioned accounting package from desktop to the online version to improve efficiency and data security
- Created a new monthly financial statement package meeting both internal & BOD requirements
- Refined and extended forward view of cash forecasting, with a focus on liquidity management
- Provided counsel/analysis to CEO leading to a favorable outcome in renegotiating a material vendor debt
- Developed financial analysis to evaluate the profitability of various programs
- Partnered with the CEO, to develop strategies and related financial plans for key programs
- Developed annual budget for each dept and consolidated agency
- Improved internal controls
- With CEO, developed components of strategy and management template for execution of a first-ever, multi-year capital campaign
- Ongoing training of new full-time CFO
A year and a half later, I’m still working with the client. I provide ongoing support to the CFO with annual audit, regulatory reporting, cash flow forecasting, monthly financial package, and various financial analyses, as needed. I also participate in BOD meetings, as required.
Jim likes to remind us of the importance of the Fractional CFO. I believe the value-added services I provided for this client proves his point. They were able to achieve their goals to improve the management of their business without compromising their financial resources. Today, they are in a far better position to deliver on their mission.
Thank you for visiting our blog.
I hope you enjoyed our point of view and would like to receive regular posts directly to your email inbox. Toward this end, put your contact information on my mailing list.
Your feedback helps me continue to publish articles that you want to read. Your input is very important to me so; please leave a comment.
Jim Weber, Managing Partner
ITB PARTNERS
Drew Garner to Lead ITB Partners Accounting and Finance Practice Group
Drew Garner is a C-Level financial executive with over 30 years of progressive leadership roles with market-leading Fortune 100, privately held and private equity-owned companies in the consumer products, retail, construction services, manufacturing and foodservice sectors in both B2B and B2C environments. He has consistently demonstrated strong leadership through collaboration with executive teams to develop and implement strategy, gain organizational buy-in, develop execution methodologies, deliver profitable results and manage positive change in growth companies as well as turnaround scenarios. Drew is a Certified Public Accountant and has an MBA degree from the University of Georgia.
Drew Garner has been a member of ITB Partners since May of 2017. For the past year, and currently, Drew has been engaged as a Fractional CFO for Creative Community Solutions, a Norcross-based not-for-profit.
Please join me in welcoming Drew to his new role as leader/facilitator of the Accounting and Finance Practice Group.
Our Business Is Your Success
ITB Partners is a Consortium of independent
management consultants providing high value-added solutions to your problems.
We help Managers solve their problems by connecting them with high-quality
Independent Management Consultants.
Our consultants are experienced leaders, discipline experts, and project managers. Our clients are publicly and privately owned mid-caps; private equity groups and their portfolio companies, start-ups, acquisitions, and turnarounds.
Our industry expertise ranges from consumer packaged goods and
manufacturing to supply/chain, logistics, and the service sector.
Additionally, we have depth in consumer services franchising, specifically
restaurant, hospitality, retail.
Call us now to determine how we can help your business succeed.
Thank you for visiting ITB Partners.
I hope you enjoyed our point of view and would like to receive regular posts directly to your email inbox. Toward this end, put your contact information on my mailing list.
Your feedback helps me continue to publish articles that you want to read. Your input is very important to me so; please leave a comment.
Jim Weber, Managing Partner
ITB PARTNERS
My Business is Worth HOW MUCH?!?!
The Problem
We recently spent 2 hours explaining to two business partners what their business was worth and why. They were disappointed but excited to understand the value and how they would manage the business going forward.
Buying or selling a business is not easy, even for professionals who spend all their time evaluating deals. Granted, professionals have a far better understanding of the market, the supply and demand for businesses. If they specialize in a specific industry, as many do, they have an even better perspective on the market and the competitive dynamics for that sector. They understand the challenges of that line of business, including the anticipated cost of innovation required to remain competitive.
Even so, the professional must deal with challenges unique to each individual deal. Depending on the strategies employed by competing buyers, whether they’re strategic or financial buyers, the professional may be at a competitive disadvantage for the same acquisition target. In other words, buyers seldom have the same cost of capital. For any given transaction this dynamic will work in the favor of one or the other buyer. There are no guarantees as to an outcome.
For someone looking to sell their business, the challenge becomes monumentally greater. It is likely that these owners have been completely focused on their day-to-day operations, probably paying little attention to the details of merger and acquisition activity in their industry. As a result, they are not savvy sellers. They must learn as much as they can as quickly as possible to realize the most value from the sale of their company.
When we present a valuation to our clients, they are usually horrified. The value is most often nowhere near their expectations or needs. The disbelief and devastation are apparent. Why is this? Business owners do not have a full understanding of what drives business value.
Ultimately, the value of a company depends on internal and external factors to the enterprise. Clearly, internal factors are more straightforward. Most people understand that sustained revenue generation is a key driving force, along with the margins generated on that revenue, and non-cash expenses, i.e. depreciation and amortization.
External factors in play include the overall state of the economy and the attractiveness of other businesses for sale in the same industry segment. This will provide an indication as to the interest level for the business and other potential sellers. Whereas buyers may be active in a depressed economy when prices may be lower, sellers are less motivated. On the other hand, the least competitive companies may be forced to sell during a recession.
Research says that 4 million businesses will be sold over the next 5 – 10 years. If that’s even close, you know that most will be selling for well under what their value could have been…IF THEY SELL AT ALL.
When is the Best Time to Get on The Value Track?
The ideal time to begin building value is the moment you start your business. But most of us are scrambling to get going – and then get so busy with growth – that we delay focusing on building value and exit planning. We are caught up in putting out fires, it remains a lifestyle business, value suffers.
The Value Track – 7 Steps in the Process
The Value Track is a proven, 7-step process of improving profitability and building the transferable value – the real value – of your business. Embracing the Value Track approach will help you exit ownership on your own terms, create your best possible future and improve your quality of life.
Whatever stage you are at in your business’ lifecycle, this process gets you beyond all of that and onto a serious Value-Building track for your company. Click here for 3 client stories at three stages.
- Get Everyone on the Same Page
- Understand Current Business Value
- Build Your Advisory Team
- Exit-Readiness Assessment
- Build Value
- Determine Exit Structure
- Execute the Transaction
Are You on The Value Track? Learn More About the 7 Steps here: The Value Track
David Shavzin, CMC
Founder & President, The Value Track
770-329-5224
david@GetOnTheValueTrack.com
Succession Planning / Exit Planning, Building Transferable Value for Sale
Our BLOG // LinkedIn // www.GetOnTheValueTrack.com
Tags: exit plan, Exit Planning, exit strategy, transferable value, value, Value track
Thank you for visiting our blog.
I hope you enjoyed our point of view and would like to receive regular posts directly to your email inbox. Toward this end, put your contact information on my mailing list.
Your feedback helps me continue to publish articles that you want to read. Your input is very important to me so; please leave a comment.
Jim Weber, Managing Partner
ITB PARTNERS
Exit and Succession Planning is a Team Sport
We have advisors and coaches in all facets of life. But in this most important area for our future, for our family and for our retirement, most business owners are pretty much just “winging it”. Oh, they may have an accountant but not much more of a team to focus on exit planning in all its complexities. An advisory team is critical for successful succession planning.
Business owners start their companies to create their future. But they often lose sight of the key to making that future happen – building value. They get caught up in the day-to-day and don’t get to implementing the sustainable, positive change that allows them to transition on their own terms.
Consider: “…78 percent of small-business-owner clients plan to sell their businesses to fund their retirement. The proceeds are needed to fund 60 percent to 100 percent of their retirement needs. Yet, less than 30 percent of clients actually have a written succession plan…”
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/04/13/ew-small-biz-have-an-exit-plan.html [I would suggest that 30% is generous, and even if accurate, that those plans are not very effective, for growth or for exit planning.]
When I speak on exit planning/succession planning/transition planning, I outline a proven 7-step process. Forming your advisory team is one of those steps.
Build a Team of Advisors.
Nobody knows everything. Many of my clients are in creative industries, designing, creating, building. You don’t want me in that role. But I have worked with many organizations and have a different experience and skill set than my clients. I bring ideas and experience from many industries and many client engagements. The other critical exit planning team members bring their own expertise to the table. These should include:
- Exit Planning Consultant / Coach
- CPA
- Financial Advisor
- Business value expert
- Business Attorney
- Insurance Expert
- Estate Planning Attorney
- Banker
- Business Transaction Expert
When I work with a client, we build this team. The players may already be in place. Or, we may bring in advisors where there is a gap. Either way, we need this core team working with the owner. A business is complex. A marketing action impacts finance, HR, and more. Big decisions need to take into account the effect on the whole organization and should support clear goals focused on building value.
The client receives much better advice and guidance with this approach.
This does not mean that you are going to start hiring all of these people and employing them full-time as you work toward your transition…especially if you have a few years to go. But, you should use them strategically as you build your business/succession plan. For major decisions on growth, expenditures, hiring, exit-readiness, business value, deal structure…engage their expertise!
The Bottom Line
Find advisors who understand what you are all about, your growth and exit planning objectives. More importantly, find advisors with whom you feel comfortable. Make sure that they can work together and collaborate on your behalf.
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David Shavzin, CMC
770-329-5224
david@GetOnTheValueTrack.com
The Value Track
Succession Planning / Exit Planning, Building Transferable Value for Sale
Thank you for visiting our blog.
I hope you enjoyed our point of view and would like to receive regular posts directly to your email inbox. Toward this end, put your contact information on my mailing list.
Your feedback helps me continue to publish articles that you want to read. Your input is very important to me so; please leave a comment.
Jim Weber, Managing Partner
ITB PARTNERS
Debbie Rodkin to Speak to BENG Atlanta Chapter
Description
Join Us for the May Atlanta BENG Chapter Meeting
featuring Debbie Rodkin, MBA Linkedin
Debbie will speak on the topic: Cost Segregation
Date And Time
Tue, May 14, 2019
7:30 AM – 9:30 AM EDT
Location
In Your 50’s, 60’s or 70’s Without an Exit Plan?
I hear it more and more coming from Baby Boomers. This question is often posed casually: “So what do you think, should I start my exit plan 2 years ahead, maybe 3 years ahead?”
They often ask knowing the answer. They are trying to make themselves feel better because they haven’t created an exit plan and they know they should have started it long ago. If I respond that waiting until 24 months ahead of sale is ok, they can let themselves off the hook for not having an exit plan in place.
I hear from business owners every day.
- Some say they are tired and would like to get out. They do not want to put in much more time or invest in building the value of the company. Yet, they are not satisfied with what it is worth today.
- Some in family businesses have put off building a succession plan for a generation to generation transfer. They may feel they have time, or they may feel that their children (children often in their 30’s and 40’s) are “not ready yet”. They may fear losing an income stream as they transition out of the business.
- Some are simply working the business, taking no time to develop an exit plan that could dramatically increase the value of the business when it comes time to sell.
If any of these ring true for you, there are many potential solutions to address your concerns and situation. Take the first step and have a conversation with all in involved. A good advisory team can help guide those exit plan discussions and provide an objective, experienced perspective. There are so many business exit options.
If you do have just a few years, there are a number of things you can do to optimize that exit and get everyone on the same page. But “2 – 3 years” is NOW, especially if you are a business owner in your 50’s, 60’s, 70’s or older. You have heard when talking about stocks that you can’t time the market. It’s the same thing for your business. And, remember, the sale process itself can take 6 or 9 months to a year.
There will be a downturn in the market. Getting caught in that next downturn will likely reduce the value of your business. Perhaps more importantly, it could keep you captive in your business for another few years as you rebuild.
Questions to ask yourself:
- Do you know the value of your business? Don’t rely on a value that is some industry multiple or that sounds reasonable or what you’d like. Get professional assistance. This is your life, livelihood, and retirement.
- When do you want to be completely or mostly out of the business?
- Can you wait out the next downturn? If you are thinking of a 2- to 3-year timeframe, what if the economy slows down? Can you wait another few years to rebuild the value of your business? Or are you willing/able to walk away with less money?
- Do you have a solid plan for what you will do after your exit?
By the Way, It’s NOT all about YOU!
Without an exit plan, you are not just risking your own retirement or next phase of life. You are putting in jeopardy your spouse, children, their families, your employees, their families and more.
The message is simple: work with your advisors now to get a good understanding of your situation. The more informed you are, the better positioned you will be in creating an exit plan that works for you, maximizes value and minimizes risk. You will leave the legacy that you want, not what others want. You will create your future!
Get Started on Your Exit Plan
If you haven’t begun to plan, get on it! Get a business valuation done, build your advisory team, start on building business value!
Need to Get an Idea of Where You Stand?
Thank you for visiting our blog.
I hope you enjoyed our point of view and would like to receive regular posts directly to your email inbox. Toward this end, put your contact information on my mailing list.
Your feedback helps me continue to publish articles that you want to read. Your input is important to me so; please leave a comment.
Jim Weber, Managing Partner
ITB PARTNERS
Your Exit Plan Needs to be Right for YOU! By David Shavzin; Shavzin & Associates
In a previous blog post on Exit Planning and Succession Planning Options, I discussed the many ways to exit your business. When exit planning, we tend to think of simply selling the business one day and receiving a check for the full amount. The reality is quite different. There are so many possibilities, many that may be much more in line with your transition planning needs. As a business owner selling a business, you need to consider the options.
Exit Planning Options – Real, Current Client Examples
It occurred to me recently that my current clients illustrate this in a very real way. It is one thing to walk through potential, theoretical ways to exit – another to be hands-on guiding clients through so many different approaches that best fit THEIR SPECIFIC needs as they build transferable value over time.
At this moment, I am working with clients with a wide variety of exit strategies that include:
- A transition from one Generation to the Next: planning includes business value growth, skills development and “upgrading” marketing efforts.
- An outright Sale to a 3rd Party: work is focused on building revenue, profitability and transferable value to maximize the sale price. Classic exit planning – build value and put it on the market.
- A Merger of two companies: one of the owners buying out the other. Key to success is a focus on building value over time to ensure the company continues to be attractive to the younger partner, who will eventually buy out the senior partner.
- Equity Investor – Partial sale, possibly a complete exit over time: an early stage company with high growth, considering a first round of private equity investment. Eventually, there may be a second round and/or an outright sale.
- Transition to Children: a family-owned company thinking 20 years ahead to the succession planning that will prepare their currently young children to take over the business. All of the foundational work and value growth will provide for alternative exit strategies should the children not end up taking over.
- Keep Options Open: Plan for a third-party sale, with a potential next generation stepping in, to be determined. Working on building transferable value and cleaning up the infrastructure for either eventuality.
Get Started on Your Exit Plan
The past blog post I mentioned on exit strategy options may sound theoretical. I hope these real client examples get you thinking about YOUR succession planning options. Consider the alternatives that may be more appropriate, more profitable and more in tune with how you would like to create YOUR future.
If you haven’t begun to plan, get on it! Get a business valuation done, build your advisory team, start on building business value!
Need help with an Exit Readiness Assessment? Give me a call!
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David Shavzin, CMC
Shavzin and Associates, Inc.
Valuation, Succession Planning / Exit Planning, Building Value for Sale
Atlanta, Georgia
770-329-5224
dshavzin@shavzinassociates.com