I give a lot of consideration to the way I use my time.  Often, these assessments lead to significant adjustments.  A decision this week reminded me of a similar situation a decade ago.

In 2003 I joined a club to conduct business and entertain clients and prospects. This club provided excellent food and beverage service to accommodate breakfast and luncheon meetings.  It had enough rooms of varied sizes for private meetings.  Because of its commanding view from the top floor of a high-rise office building, it was a popular place for many events, including weddings, and holiday parties.  It was a good location for political functions.  I made good use of the club’s amenities, especially during the holidays.  I hosted an Annual Company Meeting and facilitated the use of the club for a major alumni event and a few smaller gatherings.  My middle daughter chose the club for her wedding and reception.  The club was good about giving back to its members as well, hosting a free members appreciation gala during the holiday season.  It wasn’t the most convenient location, but I met a lot of great people and significantly improved my networking skills.

Among the members, I came to know, were a few cigar aficionados.  Although the club was a non-smoking venue, there was a cigar bar in an adjacent hotel.  One thing led to another, and eventually, we formed a poker group. We met once a month, enjoying a cigar and a beer or two before the game.  Poker night was not as much about poker as it was camaraderie among friends.  Fifteen years later, the game is still going. It is still less about the poker and more about spending time with friends. Only two of us are left from the original group, as members have come and gone.

Toward the end of 2008, as the economy slipped into recession, I chose not to renew my membership with the club.  The recession put a lot of things into perspective.  A crisis will do that.  I came to realize that I was not meeting the type of people I needed to build my business.  Additionally, the location caused me to spend too much time traveling to and from the club.  It wasn’t necessarily a happy decision as I was very fond of the club.  I had made some lasting friendships and had gained the respect of the management and staff.  Sadly, continued membership at the club was not aligned with my objectives.   I realized the need to refocus my efforts as the economy became more unstable and unpredictable.  It wasn’t easy leaving the club, but it was necessary.

I had a similar epiphany Friday morning conducting a very successful ITB Partners meeting. I was with twenty highly accomplished professionals, with two or three more participating by telephone. We were discussing plans for a strategic review for our company.  It was quite exhilarating. I’ve always enjoyed leading bright people through the process of chartering business strategy. You could say that it is in my DNA. I was in the zone.

On the other hand, I’ve come to realize that I no longer have the same level of anticipation for poker night. In fact, I’ve noticed a certain level of trepidation.  I know it’s pointless to continue playing if it isn’t enjoyable. I have far too many other responsibilities to occupy my time.

When I compared Friday’s meeting to the monthly poker game, the implication was clear. The thrill is gone. I have been going through the motions. It is no longer a productive use of my time, even for recreation.  It’s time to move on.  My decision won’t affect the relationships I have with close friends in the group which are solid.

It’s important to reassess from time to time.  Successful companies have a process to review their annual progress against plans, adjusting as needed.  As individuals, we make New Year’s Resolutions at the beginning of each year.  Many of those resolutions are never achieved, however, we understand their intrinsic value.  I find it useful to assess the way I use my time in connection with my goals and objectives.  I think you will too.

Jim Weber, Managing Partner

ITB PARTNERS

Jim.Weber@itbpartners.com

On November 2nd, the Friday before the midterm elections, the U.S. Department of Labor presented its initial report for October.  The report showed that employment increased by 250,000, a 1.7% year-over-year improvement.

On Tuesday, November 6,  The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary,

The report reflected an unemployment of 3.7% and a Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) of 62.9%.  Job Openings were reported at 7.0 million, down from 7.3 million the prior month.

The bulk of October’s hiring came from three major industry segments; healthcare and social assistance added 46,700 jobs, leisure and hospitality added 42,000 jobs, and manufacturing added 32,000 jobs. The only sector to record a decline was the education sector which dropped 2,500 jobs. On a year over year basis, the manufacturing sector increased employment by 9.4%, construction employment increased by 4.7%, and transportation/warehousing increased 3.5%. The information sector lost a half a point.

The September employment figure was revised downward from 134,000 to 118,000, whereas the August figure was revised upward from 270,00 to 286,000.  During the third quarter, GDP increased by 3.5% as compared to 4.2% in the second quarter. The consensus is that the economy is on track for a full year GDP increase of 3%.

The economy remains strong, without clear evidence of slowing. We have seen some wage increases which supports the belief that the labor market is tightening.  I find it interesting that employers are trying to fill 7 million jobs, and The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is at a historic low.  In fact, the ratio of people looking for work to jobs available is .9.  In other words, for every 100 available jobs, 90 people are actively seeking employment.  The U.S. labor market has enough slack to accommodate the demand for labor, or so it seems.  So, why haven’t those jobs been filled by the people looking for work?   There is an obvious disconnect between the demand for labor, unemployment, and the LFPR.  Call it a Demand-Unemployment-LFPR Paradox.

FIVE REASONS FOR THIS PARADOX.

Lack of appropriate skills

Structural unemployment

Disability and chronic illnesses

Opioid epidemic

Baby boomers are retiring

I find these reasons interesting if not compelling. I can understand the effect of disability and chronic illness, especially high blood pressure and diabetes.  The effect on the labor pool includes the afflicted and their caregivers. Personally, I would include people who are chronically addicted to drugs, including opioids, as disabled at least temporarily. These issues require Public Policy initiatives at the Federal and State levels.

About “lack of appropriate skills,” the issue is clear.  If an employer is looking to hire software engineers, it is unlikely that a middle-aged, displaced factory worker would be a viable candidate.  This is an obvious example however, it doesn’t explain the bulk of the paradox.

I find the issue of retiring Baby Boomers most interesting as there are conflicting signals regarding their situation. The first is that we are healthier than previous generations and highly motivated to contribute.  Additionally, I continue to hear reports from financial planners that the average baby boomer has somewhere between $10,000 and $50,000 in savings, hardly enough to support retirement.  The effects of divorce and unemployment have diminished the financial security for many Baby Boomers.  Admittedly, many are leaving the corporate world and government service with pensions. However, Baby Boomers I encounter are not ready to retire even if they have the financial resources to do so.

Structural Unemployment is a euphemism for age discrimination, whether real or perceived.  In some cases, it may be due to a perceived lack of relevant skills.  In other situations, it may be due to salary requirements.  The lack of relevant skills is a perception that seniors are not as savvy using technology as younger workers.  I find this questionable.  On the other hand, seniors probably have expectations for a greater wage than the market may support.   A good example is the demand to raise the minimum wage by displaced workers who were forced to find employment in Quick Service Restaurants during the recession.  Hiring older workers carries risk, including health and vitality, and EEO complaints.  Of all the reasons to be disconnected from the workforce, I find this to be the easiest to overcome. As the economy continues to restructure itself to accommodate the digital revolution, employers are becoming more comfortable employing freelancers, or outsourcing job functions. This creates tremendous opportunities for anyone with relevant skills, like Baby Boomers, to create their own employment opportunities.

I believe it is a useful goal to create an economy that can employ everyone that wants to work.  I believe in policies that provide incentives for people to work.  Our current economic environment has challenges and opportunities.  The clearest opportunity is for Baby Boomers and those affected by Structural Unemployment to turn perceived weaknesses into strengths and embrace the digital economy.  Corporations may take the lead in addressing the skills gap by providing training and development programs.  Public Health Policy must become more robust to address chronic illness and addiction.  It occurs to me that the Labor Paradox can be bridged, but it will take significant effort.

Addendum: Understanding The Bureau of Labor Statistics Reports on Unemployment and LBFR