“I’m not Chinese. I thrive in interesting times.” ~ Charles de Lint ~
In both culture and commerce, we live in what many would consider “interesting times” – as stated in the old Chinese proverb. A proverb, by the way, that is intended as a curse, not a blessing.
Our “interesting times” have officially decimated the worldwide economy, ravaged social norms, and rattled the psyche of many. As we come out of this pandemic-driven calamity we face a truly “new world.” Whether it will be a “brave new world” is yet to be seen – but a “new world” it will most certainly be.
I have learned in a career-focused at disruptive technology marketplaces – often leading edge – is that change is a threat to the meek but an opportunity for the bold. Navigating the New Normal will take – as we will discuss in future parts of this Article – an intrepid head and an empathetic heart.
As a serial CEO and Business Strategist, I have also learned that identifying
change is part and parcel to an effective strategy. In its simplest form, the “essence” of strategy is to “look over the horizon” and identify macro trends – i.e., read “change” – that justifies the investment. The need to understand what is over the horizon and see those macro trends that merit the investment of manpower, capital, and time is more important than ever.
With this four-part article – that will be published over the next several days – I thought we would explore what the future holds for all of us. The four parts are Part 1 – The “New Normal” – No Going Back to Normal Part 2 – Not Your Daddy’s Restructuring, the Idea of Restoration Part 3 – 5 C’s Restoration Strategy – the first 3 “C’s” Part 4 – 5 C’s Restoration Strategy – the final 2 “C’s”
Writing is a cathartic process for me that forces me to think more thoroughly through ideas and concepts. It is my hope with this article to prompt some productive discussion about what the New Normal will be, how companies can start moving from isolation to the New Normal, and finally, what the long-term implications are for conducting business.
Thank you in advance for taking the time to read this and even more so to comment – I am interested in everyone’s opinion since that is how we all will learn and move forward together.
THE “NEW NORMAL” – NO GOING BACK TO NORMAL
©2020 Donald H Turner
I keep hearing from both mainstream and trade media talk about “when things will get back to normal.” From my perspective, that is simply wrong thinking. There is NO getting back to normal after this global disruption of – in our lifetimes – unprecedented scale.
As business professionals, we are being forced to take a fresh look at the fundamental societal changes that exist now and will be occurring in the future and understand how they will drive new ways of conducting business.
Simply put, we must prepare for the “New Normal”
After giving it considerable thought over the past several weeks, I’ve developed four observations that I’ll share here as fodder for discussion.
FIRST, the New Normal will NOT come all at once. It will evolve in phases over the next six to twenty-four months as we move from isolation to controlled distancing to an environment that – once vaccines are readily available – will allow us to interact face-to-face again on a safer basis. One thing I know for sure is that many individuals throughout our society will be permanently “scarred” from this pandemic and never embrace face-to-face interaction as they did in the past.
SECONDLY, the New Normal will certainly contain “holdovers” from our current isolation phase that will represent – in some cases radical – changes to our lives in general and how we conduct business specifically. Yes, we will make more use of, be more comfortable with, and find ways to enhance the virtual experience that we have been forced to at the present moment. One individual I recently read said, “We’re currently in the epicenter of the biggest remote-work experiment in history….” Clearly, there will be part of the population that permanently embraces “electronic presence” over “physical presence” and will want to continue to live and work that way.
THIRDLY, the New Normal will change the commerce landscape – there is simply no getting around that. Some products and services will simply become irrelevant, while others become more important. Of even more interest are the new solutions that will arise to support – if not enable – the New Normal. Will movie theaters ever enjoy their historical attendance as many find they have enjoyed in-home entertainment more? Will discretionary “claustrophobic” air travel ever reach traditional levels as many will value individual travel freedom in a car? Will this drive more travel domestically versus overseas? Will office space ever be viewed with the same attractiveness? How will relationship-building evolve as we simply don’t have the same level of physical interaction as in the past? What will take its place? Will we focus less on the trappings of a business environment and focus more on what individuals are saying? Answering these questions and many more are all part of trying to understand the New Normal.
FOURTHLY, we – as a country and more specifically as a consumer population – are going to be taking a harder look at our trade with foreign powers. Yep, you guessed it – specifically China. China has managed to reposition itself in the global mindset from one of historical suspicion to blatant cynicism. At this point, I don’t believe anyone knows the real origin details of the coronavirus and who is responsible – or is it simply a force majeure of epic proportions. That said, this we do know:
- China delayed letting the world know about the coronavirus – there was a government-driven movement to suppress information about the coronavirus – even threatening the doctor who warned his colleagues about a possible outbreak. On 3 Jan 2020, Wuhan police summoned and admonished him for “making false comments on the Internet” – forcing him to write a retraction. Unfortunately, this ophthalmologist, Li Winliang, later personally contracted the virus and has since died at the age of 33.
- U.S. healthcare found out quickly that too many of our critical supplies – including pharmaceuticals – were made in China. Our healthcare supply chain was negatively impacted by the virus in China, creating significant problems in the U.S. Furthermore, as China rushed to provide us with needed supplies like N95 respirators, ventilators, and other medical supplies we found out they had serious quality problems and were all but unusable. There is already a movement to take a fresh look at what we allow to be manufactured in China versus in the good ole USA. Hopefully, we will recognize that having a stuffed toy being made in China is of far different importance than from having a life-saving medical device. I am all for a global economy but I’m also all for prioritizing our supply chain and identifying those items that independent of the cost are best manufactured at home.
- China has both misrepresented and misreported coronavirus statistics to the world. There has always been skepticism about information from China, but now it has become blatant. In a world where we are seeing in the hundreds of deaths per million people – e.g., Spain 455, Italy 399, France 310, UK 241, with the US at 129, etc. – China reports “3”. That is right, in the country where it all started and I would suggest doesn’t have the Healthcare System of the aforementioned countries, they are reporting 3 deaths per million people. In case you’re curious about what other countries of importance are reporting numbers similar to China you don’t have to look any further than Russia – another bastion of information transparency – which is also reporting “3” deaths per million people. The bottom line, it is difficult to do business with someone you can’t believe and simply don’t trust.
So, these observations beg the question, “what does all this New Normal mean for business?”
In Part 2, we’ll address the idea that managing in the New Normal will require an approach that goes beyond what we have typically referred to as Restructuring or Turnaround. It will call for an approach that I’m referring to as “Restoration.”
don@turnerworld.com
678.361.3313
www.turnerworld.com
Thank you for visiting our blog.
I hope you enjoyed our point of view and would like to receive regular posts directly to your email inbox. Toward this end, put your contact information on my mailing list.
Your feedback helps me continue to publish articles that you want to read. Your input is very important to me so; please leave a comment.
Jim Weber – Managing Partner, ITB Partners