Month: July 2020

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Job Search in the Latest “New Normal” – Recruiting and Selection Dynamics

Networking is still key!

It is normal for me to talk with a lot of job seekers and this week was no exception.  One conversation was remarkable, albeit in a disappointing way.  Steve was referred to me by a colleague as his job search has been ineffective.  Happy to help, I scheduled a phone call to exchange information and to learn about his career interests.  The gist of our conversation is that Steve is having difficulty generating interest from employers.  He is an experienced professional with an advanced degree, but he is uncomfortable networking.  He is reticent about making even a small effort in that direction.  The bulk of his search has been about submitting his resume to company portals and online job boards.  He has not done much research into other resources, tools, and techniques to leverage his efforts.   I explained that up to 85% of people find their jobs through networking, while online applications account for about 10%.  I encouraged him to spend his time accordingly.  It was a difficult conversation. My advice did not seem to resonate.  The best I could do was offer suggestions and encourage him to check in from time to time.

My last post was the first in a series of articles to explore Job Search in the Latest “New Normal.”  In that post, I discussed the importance of situational awareness to understand the dynamics of the job market.  One must have three hundred and sixty-degree understanding of playing field to ensure a successful outcome.  The impact of Covid-19 has accelerated many trends already evident in the market. In this post, I explore evolutionary aspects of recruiting and selection processes the job seeker may encounter.

Although the economy is improving and companies are rehiring, it is unclear as to the continued pace of the recovery.   Women are said to be hardest hit by the pandemic related layoffs.  They are concerned about the economic impact on their family’s well-being.  They wonder how much time will pass before they begin earning a regular paycheck again.  If they have school-age children at home, their careers may be put on hold as school systems opt for virtual education.  For many, their concentration is short-term survival, less so for the long term.  This is reasonable and probably good thinking.

If you believe the economic forecasts, employers are planning for a favorable fourth quarter.  Their recruiting activity must begin now if they expect to be staffed by Fall.  They are using virtual tools to facilitate more of their recruiting, selection, and onboarding processes. Most employers are soliciting applications through online portals.  Additionally, they are likely to use applicant tracking systems (ATS) to make the process more efficient. Video interviews have gained greater acceptance, especially for senior-level positions.  Now, I am hearing that these tools are becoming commonplace across a wider range of job categories.  This makes sense to me as video conferencing is an obvious solution for recruiters who may be working from home.   These tools are effective, affordable, and easy to use.  The job seeker must become adept with the virtual interview.

The pace of hiring is not uniform across all industry segments.  The media has reported several stories about iconic brands that have announced plans to hire a significant number of new employees.  On the other hand, many smaller businesses are struggling to survive or planning to close.  Many of the latter are service-sector operations, including restaurants.  Finding job opportunities in this segment is problematic.  One can reasonably expect six months to a year or more before the economy reaches the pre-pandemic staffing level for this segment.  You should consider redeploying your skillset for opportunities in growing industry segments.

Tips to Improve your search:

  • Networking is still the key
  • Embrace Social Media
  • Think creatively – consider your transferable skills
  • Become comfortable with video interviews
  • Consider freelance work as a bridge strategy

We cannot fully appreciate the potential economic downside or the possible upside as we adapt to Covid-19.  Assuming that surrender is not an option, we must adapt.  The recruiting and selection process has gone virtual, so we must become proficient with virtual tools and processes.  Networking is still the most viable way to find a new job, so embrace that activity.  Become a confident networker if not an expert.  Include virtual networking in your portfolio via LinkedIn, email outreach, and other social media platforms.  Consider the value of your skill-stack to support a career move to a high-performing industry segment.  Be open to freelance work as a bridge strategy to a full-time situation, or maybe a new career.  We cannot predict the jobs that may go away or those that will be created.  It is safe to say, however, that new career opportunities will be available to you if you do your research and seek them out.

Thank you for visiting our blog.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner, ITB Partners

I hope you enjoyed our point of view and would like to receive regular posts directly to your email inbox.  Toward this end, put your contact information on my mailing list.

Your feedback helps me continue to publish articles that you want to read.  Your input is very important to me so; please leave a comment.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner,  ITB Partners

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Job Search in the Latest New Normal

ITB Partners Members Meeting

We have reached the halfway point for 2020, which may be the strangest year of my life.  Your’s too, most likely. Working through the challenges presented by Covid-19 is certainly remarkable.  Few if anyone I know, has ever experienced a pandemic of this nature or the measures required to moderate its spread.  And then, the follow-on weeks of civil unrest. Yes, this year has been surreal.

The sudden transition from a booming economy to a voluntary lockdown has been jarring.  Overnight, we have gone from historically low to depression-level unemployment.  The relief provided by the Federal Government is unprecedented. It has helped employers and employees survive the lockdown.  To some extent, however, it may have been counterproductive as minimum wage earners lack the incentive to return to work before their benefits expire.  Nevertheless, many furloughed at the beginning of ‘shelter in place,’ lost their jobs as employers face the realities of survival.  Some of these people have reached out to me for help.

The underlying structure of the economy is still intact.

Even though many jobs are gone, at least temporarily, the underlying structure of the economy is still intact. This has not been a traditional recession where a bubble in the economy collapses.  It is closer to a natural disaster save for the destruction of infrastructure. The manufacturing, supply chain, logistics network has suffered a minimal impact.  The financial services sector has fared well.  The Service Sector has been hardest hit as the need for social distancing directly impacts their business model.  By design, the Service Sector is based on close personal contact. Even so, the road back to prosperity has not been closed.  The level of employment is rapidly improving.  There is a reason for guarded optimism.

My neighbor is a good case study.  He was furloughed from a senior-level construction and development position for a major restaurant brand.  By the end of the lockdown, his position was eliminated as his employer decided to reduce their development plans for 2020.

The good news is that he is a licensed Architect.   He has other options.  In fact, he has landed freelance work with architectural firms.  Additionally, he has found that positions, like the one he lost, are available locally.

I have received a significant uptick in calls from job seekers requiring help.  A few have not had to look for a job for many years and want to understand the changes in the recruiting and selection process.  Others are looking to become more competitive by improving their job search skills, resume, and other collateral material.  Most find the process confusing.  They seek clarity and direction.

Questions for The Job Seeker:

    • How is Your Situational awareness?
    • Are you savvy about the labor market dynamics?
    • Do you have a full appreciation for your options?
    • Do you understand the needs of your audience, employer risk?
    • Do you think and behave like a brand?  Be the product/brand!
    • How are your communication skills?
    • Do you understand how to navigate interview traps and pitfalls?

Situational Awareness:

The first step in the job search process is to gain situational awareness.  Job seekers face a dynamic market, especially for senior management. Employers are working mightily to remain relevant.  They face intense pressure from traditional and disruptive competition. Even the strongest brands can become distracted by mergers, acquisitions, downsizing, right-sizing, productivity improvement initiatives, etc. The newest challenge is, of course, a heightened concern for employers’ ability to survive the devastating impact of the pandemic driven lock-down.  Brands must not only survive the lock-down, they must learn to thrive in an environment requiring a greater focus on sanitation and hygiene.  They are forced to adapt, in real-time, as humanity suffers the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Employers have cause to substitute technology for human capital.  Many companies will never reopen. This is not all bad.  Successful companies will become stronger, increasing demand for employees.

Conclusions and Recommendations:

What is your evaluation of the situation?  Are you working in an industry sector more, or less impacted by the virus?  Are your skills still in demand?   Do you need new skills or a tune-up?   What opportunities have been revealed?  How should you adjust your strategy?  Relevancy is a fundamental issue for job seekers.  If you need help, seek out professionals who understand the situation.  Remember, you are the product.  Be the product!  You must adjust and adapt to the “Latest New Normal.”

I will explore the remainder of these challenges in the next few weeks.

Thank you for visiting our blog.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner, ITB Partners

I hope you enjoyed our point of view and would like to receive regular posts directly to your email inbox.  Toward this end, put your contact information on my mailing list.

Your feedback helps me continue to publish articles that you want to read.  Your input is very important to me so; please leave a comment.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner,  ITB Partners

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How The Stock Market Can Predict Elections – Market Commentary – July 13

Kevin Garrett – Integrated Financial Group

2020 is an election year, and as we get closer to November, I expect this to replace COVID-19 and the recession at the top of investors’ minds. The makeup of Congress may influence stock market performance, and how stocks and the economy perform prior to the election may forecast who will win.

THE MAKEUP OF CONGRESS IS VERY IMPORTANT

Although all election years feel different, 2020 no doubt may be one of the most unique election years ever. We have a pandemic, a deep recession, extremely heightened partisanship, a mail-in ballot controversy, an unpredictable president, and the oldest presidential candidate ever.

Amazingly, 1940 was the last time the S&P 500 Index was lower during an election year with an incumbent in the White House. Historically, when a president has been up for reelection, it has tended to boost stocks.

Stocks were down big in 2008-but President George W. Bush had finished his two terms. It isn’t about Republican or Democrat-it’s about incumbents trying to boost the economy and stock prices by the time voters go to the polls.

I’m often asked if stocks perform better under a Republican or Democratic president. I take a different view and point out that stocks have tended to do their best when we have a split Congress. Markets tend to like checks and balances to make sure one party doesn’t have too much sway.

When Republicans have controlled both chambers in Washington, DC, on average the S&P 500 has gained13.4% per year and gross domestic product (GDP) has grown 3%. When Democrats have controlled both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the economy did a little better, with GDP growth of 3.3%, while the S&P 500 was up 10.7% on average. Some of the best stock gains in recent memory took place under a split Congress. Stocks gained close to 30% in 1985, 2013, and 2019, all under a split Congress. The average S&P 500 gain with a divided Congress was 17.2% while GDP growth averaged 2.8%, again suggesting markets may prefer split power come November.

WATCH THE ECONOMY

History shows that the US economy has had major bearings on the presidential election outcomes. If there has been a recession during the year or two before the election, the incumbent president has tended to lose. If there were no recession during that time, the incumbent tended to win. Incredibly, the economy has predicted the winning president every year going back to President Calvin Coolidge, when he won despite a recession within two years of the election. But Coolidge inherited a recession when President Warren G. Harding passed away, and by the time people voted in November 1924, the Roaring ’20s had started to take hold, and the economy was strong again.

My analysis suggests the 2020 presidential race is still up in the air. If the economy continues to open up, a vaccine is on the way, and the massive stimulus continues to drive asset prices higher, President Trump’s chances may improve. A weak economy struggling to come out of recession and weaker markets would likely favor challenger former Vice President Joe Biden.

AND WATCH THE STOCK MARKET

Since 1928, the stock market has accurately predicted the winner of the presidential election 87% of the time, including every single election since 1984. It’s quite simple. When the S&P 500 has been higher the three months before the election, the incumbent party usually has won; when stocks were lower, the incumbent party usually has lost.

Think back to 2016, when virtually no one expected Hillary Clinton to lose-except for the stock market. Stocks were quite weak leading up to the election, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down nine days in a row. Copper (a President Trump play on infrastructure) was in the green a record 14 consecutive days.

POTENTIAL POLICY CHANGES

Markets tend to be volatile ahead of elections because of the uncertainty around possible policy changes. In this election, the stakes are particularly high for corporate America because a takeover of the Senate by Democrats and a possible Biden victory reportedly may lead to an increase in the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% and unwind the corporate earnings boost the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act delivered.

Other areas to watch that could impact markets:

* Tighter financial regulation could have some market impact.
* Healthcare should perform well regardless of the election outcome with “Medicare for All” off the table.
* Energy could be hurt by a potential blue wave, but prices may get support from lower production and higher production costs.

So in summary, as we get closer to the November election, how stocks and the economy are doing could be a big signal for who will win the election and be in office in January.

KEVIN GARRETT, AWMA, CFS
Integrated Financial Group
200 Ashford Center North, Ste. 400 | Atlanta, GA 30338
Phone | 770.353.6311
Email | kgarrett@intfingroup.com

Website | kevingarrettifg.com

Thank you for visiting our blog.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner, ITB Partners

I hope you enjoyed our point of view and would like to receive regular posts directly to your email inbox.  Toward this end, put your contact information on my mailing list.

Your feedback helps me continue to publish articles that you want to read.  Your input is very important to me so; please leave a comment.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner,  ITB Partners

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A Compelling Story Is Your Launchpad!

Compelling Stories Matter

In mid-June, I received an email from my next-door neighbor asking for help with a project.  Bob had just completed the first draft of a book and was beginning to think about the publishing process.  He thought I could help sort out his options. Six months ago, Bob shared his idea for a book so I wasn’t surprised by his request.  He wanted to tell a story about the challenges of becoming a Plant Manager, based on personal experience.  His interest was to write a novel in the style of “The Goal,”  by Eliyahu M. Goldratt and Jeff Cox.  It appears that the Covid-19 voluntary lockdown provided him with the perfect opportunity to write his book.   We scheduled a Beer Summit for 4:00 p.m. Saturday.

Bob arrived at our side door, off the kitchen, with a six-pack of chilled Pilsner Urquell.  That was a pleasant surprise as I had just stocked our beverage center with a few of my favorite brands.  He explained that Pilsner Urquell is a brand he came to appreciate while stationed in Germany.  Always interested in trying a new brew, I thanked him and grabbed two glasses.  After a brief toast, we exited the kitchen door to the deck and found seats on the shaded corner around the fire pit.  The beer was a good choice.  We began to talk.
He reminded me of his plan to write a book to help launch a consulting career.  The opportunity presented itself, so he took it.  Bob said that he had been talking to friends about their publishing experience.  So far, the feedback he had received was about traditional publishing.  He said he wanted to hear about my self-publishing experience.  I told him how I had published my book on Amazon, and I volunteered to introduce him to colleagues who had significantly more self-publishing experience.  Also, I suggested that he distribute his manuscript to ten or twelve trusted friends to gain their perspectives.  Bob asked if I would like to read his draft. I happily agreed.
The following Saturday, we met again to discuss his manuscript.  As with our first meeting, Bob supplied the beer, this time a six-pack of Guinness, one of my favorites.  We found our spots on the corner of my deck and opened our beers.  Small talk followed as we eased into serious conversation.
Bob had emailed his manuscript in MSWord format.  I read it in ten-page printed chunks, making notes on those pages.  Before handing Bob his marked-up manuscript, I explained that my focus was on the quality of the story, not the grammar, sentence structure, or syntax.  I made notations of issues in those areas for his consideration, however.
As I handed Bob the manuscript I complimented him for creating a remarkable story and enjoyable read.  I went on to say that my only recommendation was that he consider changing his opening chapter.  Bob had used the first chapter to introduce Bud, the main character.   My suggestion was that Bob presents Bud’s biographical information in a series of flashbacks to provide perspective as to how his experience informed his problem-solving and decision-making process.  By doing so I believe it would generate stronger reader interest by captivating their imagination at a more dramatic part of the story.

Summary and Conclusion

Everyone likes a good story.  It is human nature, part of our DNA so to speak.  For millennia, humans have entertained themselves by telling stories around the proverbial campfire.  One can imagine the origin of the first Fish Story, “you should have seen the one that got away.”
Things have not changed that much in the 21st Century as a good story is still the preferred way to sell a product and to keep one another entertained.  In fact, I stress this point with my consultants and coaching clients.  If one wants to be considered a Subject Matter Expert, (SME) or become recognized as a leader in their field, they must be able to sell themselves.  In other words, we must be effective communicators.  Our skillset must include mastery of the written word as well as verbal communication skills.  A compelling story can be your launchpad for more effective networking, blogging, and speaking.

Thank you for visiting our blog.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner, ITB Partners

I hope you enjoyed our point of view and would like to receive regular posts directly to your email inbox.  Toward this end, put your contact information on my mailing list.

Your feedback helps me continue to publish articles that you want to read.  Your input is very important to me so; please leave a comment.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner,  ITB Partners

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The Bridge to “There!”

March 15, 2020

I taught my grandsons there are only two places in the entire universe:  “Here” and “There!”

When one would ask if I had seen his baseball glove, I would respond, “No, it’s not here. So it must be there!” They thought that was pretty neat and I would overhear them telling their brothers the same thing!

So as a business owner, you should know where you ARE – you have your numbers.  But where do you WANT to be – say in 5 years? Where is your THERE?? What does it look and feel like? Why do you want to get there?

Having worked with hundreds of business owners domestically and internationally, I am always saddened to have a client tell me they don’t know or aren’t sure where they want to be in that time frame.

I remind them of what the Cheshire Cat told Alice, “If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there!” But that “there” may not be the “there” where you intended to go!

No one disputes the necessity of planning, but the truth is that many business owners spend more time planning a vacation or a hunting trip than planning the future of their business.

I believe the primary reason is that the cares of the daily operation of the business choke out the priority of setting aside time to do the reflection necessary for a clear path forward. Stephen Covey wrote about the conflict in his seminal book First Things First, where he addressed the URGENT against the IMPORTANT.

In Quadrant I are the Urgent AND Important issues; these are the fires that have to be put out to keep the business running. Operational breakdowns, bad quality, customer complaints, delayed shipments, employee disagreements, and the list goes on!

Quadrant II is where the Important issues that are NOT Urgent reside.  This is where ALL the important issues of life reside: date night with the spouse, attending the kid’s ballgame or dance recital, reading important literature, meditating/praying, planning, reflecting, taking care of our health. We all recognize the importance of these activities in our lives, but our spouse won’t divorce us if we miss a date night – – – the fires burn up our relationships.

The paradox of this is that the ONLY way to get control of Quadrant I is to camp out in Quadrant II! Do the planning necessary to PREVENT the fires in the first place!

Let’s be honest, charting the path for a business five years out can be a daunting exercise, but it is essential to arrive at our “There!”

Strategic planning is of paramount importance. If you would like more information, feel free to contact me for a FREE 45-minute “The Bridge to There” presentation in your operation. Get a high-level view of what your future path can be!

Ralph Watson

Ralph Watson has a varied and extensive career spanning 45 years of increasingly responsible positions in both sales and operations in a very diverse mix of industry specialties, including food processing, textile and apparel, financial services, and professional management consulting.

 

 

Ralph served as a Senior Executive Analyst with a number of international consulting companies focused on the family-owned, privately held market where he distinguished himself as one of the top analysts in a highly competitive field.  In early 2014, he personally coached 10 businesses in Europe.

Ralph C. Watson, Jr.    404.520.1030

Thank you for visiting our blog.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner, ITB Partners

I hope you enjoyed our point of view and would like to receive regular posts directly to your email inbox.  Toward this end, put your contact information on my mailing list.

Your feedback helps me continue to publish articles that you want to read.  Your input is very important to me so; please leave a comment.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner, ITB Partners