Month: April 2015

I have had a number of conversations with job-seekers this week, mostly candidates for a current search.  These people are all interested in my opinion as to where the job market is headed.  What little I can offer mirrors what I have heard from the most prominent business and economic experts I follow and from the Government labor reports.  It would appear that the economy is slowing.  Europe and China are weak which affects our global corporations.  The Dollar is strong which is great for buying foreign products, but makes our goods and services more expensive overseas.  The price of oil is way off its 2014 levels putting more discretionary funds in the consumer’s pockets which is most welcomed.  On the other hand it puts pressure on the Oil Industry, especially those employing new technology to bring oil out of shale formations.  My understanding of the current oil dynamic is that the Saudi’s are trying to regain discipline in the Oil Market by maintaining a high level of supply.  They are also trying to slow down the resurgent U.S. oil boom.  Notwithstanding Saudi machinations, if the demand for oil was stronger they probably would’t be so focused on disciplining the market.  Oil prices have been moving up a tad in recent weeks so economic activity may not be about to fall off a cliff.

On the other hand, this year seems to be very similar to the first quarter of 2014 both impacted by severe winters that dampened economic activity.  In 2014 my business was a bit slow in the first half, and then I did a full-years’ worth of business in the second half of 2014.  Who knows, 2015 could be a repeat of 2014.  Another data point which I find interesting is that the Consulting side of our business remains strong.  We have a number of active engagements in process and new projects in the pipeline.  Our clients have issues that need to be addressed; however, they are not interested in adding additional headcount.

What does all this mean for job-seekers?  At this time I see employers working to strengthen the quality of their teams.  They may not be adding to total headcount, but they are working to ensure that they have the right people in position.  “Aces in their places,” is a term you may have heard before.  As the economy slows, market share battles will intensify.  If one wants a world-class product they had better have a world-class team.  Upgrading the quality of the workforce will create opportunities for existing employees, and for those looking for a new opportunity.  If you are looking for a new job, you must be positioned as a viable talent upgrade.  You must ensure that your skills are on the cutting edge.

If you are currently employed I would advise that you look long and hard for opportunities inside your company.  Most companies would prefer to promote from within wherever possible as it is less risky and builds morale.  If you need to upgrade your skills, work on those issues and ensure that it is known within your company.  If you are between jobs you must have a clear understanding as to your skill set gaps.  Close those gaps immediately!  Additionally, seek out project work or short term assignments as a part of your job search strategy.  You will become more of an insider by working on a contract basis leading to job opportunities.

In closing, my best advice is to assume that the job market is tightening and behave accordingly.  Behave like an underdog.  Ensure that your skills are current, especially your networking skills.

 

This past week was focused again on my jewelry start-up client.  The owner is an accomplished business person but new to this field.  Since my entire career has been in the retail sector I know a little about this area, if not everything.  A passionate student of gems and precious metals, my client has been building a sizable inventory while transitioning from her residential construction business.  Her launch strategy is to combine an e-commerce channel with a consignment/leased-space retail channel.  At this time her objective is to gain exposure and distribution.

Working the retail channel is a learning experience for my client.  She negotiated an agreement with an up-scale, woman’s ready to wear consignment shop just before Christmas, a promising start.  The store owner wanted a low retail price point for the initial selection and agreed to take 25% of the gross profit margin plus $.99 for each item sold.  The low price point target put a bit of a burden on my client but she was optimistic about the potential.  The sales for the first few months were surprisingly good.  Not stellar, but a good sign that my client was on the right track.  The average sale was almost 50% more than the store owner’s target, which was very positive.  My client made some money and the consignment shop owner made a little too.  The shop owner was not pleased with her cut, however, and demanded that my client agree to new terms giving the shop owner 30% of the total sale, plus $.99 per item.  Did I mention that there was no formal written agreement.  A red flag to be sure!  My client agreed to those terms and increased the mark-up to accommodate her client.  She re-priced the stock and updated the display.  Within days, the shop owner decided to end the deal entirely and returned my client’s merchandise.  We don’t understand what led her to this decision although the shop’s first quarter sales have been weak.  Payment for the balance of the sales is now in question.  Lesson learned.  If one fails to begin a relationship with a written agreement it is likely a bad sign for the long run.  My client’s attitude is to move forward and bank the learning.  She will play hard-ball to collect on that invoice however.  This situation was no surprise to me.  I have seen this movie many times before.

As one door closes another one opens.  My client found another business nearby with a buttoned-down business model.  This is a large, established retail operation that leases space to dealers.  The operator provides an inviting environment, marketing support and a central check-out counter.  They collect and pay all sales taxes.  Most importantly, the agreement is in written form, signed by all parties concerned.  My client’s focus now is to find the right product mix and price points for this location and then find other similar outlets.

Experience builds confidence and leads to intuition, often called “gut feel.”  The experience we bring to the table helps predict outcomes of decisions made and to implement strategies to mitigate risk.   As a consultant, one can point out risks and opportunities, however, in the end, the client makes the decisions.  Each of you are experienced professionals.  Your intuition should be pretty well-honed by now.  When you find yourself in a situation that just doesn’t feel right it is time to take pause.  Reflect on the situation to understand your lack of comfort.   If you let you head override your heart, recognize the risk and prepare for the likely bad situation to follow.
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Jim Weber, President
New Century Dynamics Executive Search
www.newcenturydynamics.com